Layoffs Drop and Unemployment Rate Dips

The labor department estimates that July layoffs were the least since August of 2008.  The chart below, provided by the New York Times, provides a clear picture of how the economy is slowly pulling itself out of the worst recession in over fifty years.

Certainly the rate of fall in the number of layoffs has not been smooth—it never is.  But the trend is clear.  Earlier projection of a bottoming in the third or forth quarter of this year are still looking accurate.

Fewer layoffs also resulted in a slight drop in the rate of unemployment.  The chart below shows this:

It should be pointed out that much of the drop in the rate of unemployment was a result of 400,000 workers leaving the labor market.  This “discourage worker” effect is well known in economic circles.  When job get harder to find, many workers become so discouraged that they cease actively looking for work.  It happens in every recession, and the effects are reversed when the labor market improves with recovery.

Another effect of discouraged workers is that while it  cushions the rate of unemployment during the downturn, it is a drag on unemployment rates during the recovery.  As jobs become easier to find, many of those who left the labor market because of their discouragement, re-enter the market when things get better.  A higher participation rate of the labor force thus causes the unemployment rate to rise, or fall less, when things get better.

All in all, this is good news.  The economy does appear to be bottoming.  I guess that by October on November, the fall in GDP will reach zero, and there should be some recovery in December or January of 2010.

New Currency Bundle from WisdomTree

One of the casualties of the world financial crash of 2008 was the carry trade. For the investor to make money on the interest rate differential between two currencies, it is imperative that the currency prices remain stable. Many of the emerging market currencies fell almost 50% from the last quarter of last year. This forced carry traders to liquidate their currency exposures. The carry trade went into a tailspin, and since then it’s been a waiting game for stability to return to world trade and to currency prices.

The picture has changed over the last few months, however, as the graphs below show. The first chart shows prices of the Mexican peso ETF of Rydex Investments (FXM) over the last year. The prices are the dollar value of 1000 pesos. From its peak in August of last year, the peso fell over 35% to its low in early March of this year, at which time it began something of a comeback.

Mexican Peso/Dollar 1-Year Prices

Almost all of the emerging market currencies have made similar recoveries from their lows, and they continue to improve as the world’s economies head to recovery--we hope!

Even the developed currencies like the Euro and pound sterling have taken their licks. The pound fell about 30% over the same period.

£/Dollar (FXB) 1-Year

There is another casualty of the financial carnage of last year. Prior to August of last year, ETF and ETN providers were flooding the SEC with proposals for foreign currency exchange traded products. I was running out of disk space trying to keep up with all the new filings. The collapse of the currency markets brought all these plans to a virtual standstill, and there were no new offerings for the rest of 2008.

Now, however, things have changed enough for one of the providers, WisdomTree, to follow through with their plans. On Wednesday, May 6, they brought the WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Income Fund (CEW) to market.

This new EM bundle includes 11 currencies, ranged around the world from Central Europe, Africa, Latin America and Asia. WisdomTree chose to put their new ETF under the Investment Act of 1940. This means, among other things, investors will have daily transparency of holdings and prices for their new product.

Initial sales look robust, with an average daily volume over 100,000 shares. It carries an estimated interest yield of about 4.6%.

This is a most interesting product. The inclusion of 11 currencies provides a degree of diversification not provided by single-currency ETFs. The list includes: Turkish lira, Brazilian real, South African rand, Polish zloty, South Korean won, Chilean Peso, Mexican peso, Israel shekel, Indian rupee, Taiwanese dollar, and the Chinese yuan.

I like the geographic diversity: it covers all the continents except Australia. I also like the equal weighting scheme they use to determine how much of each currency to hold. The fund will be rebalanced quarterly, and WisdomTree will remove a currency if, in their assessment, the political or economic environment becomes hostile to an orderly currency market.

This new ETF is similar to an older currency product, the Global Emerging Markets Strategy ETN, (JEM). I covered this ETN when it was first introduced in my June 26, 2008, article, Currency Bundles Pegged to the Dollar. JEM has fifteen currencies represented in their bundle. Ten of the currencies are the same as CEW, but JEM includes Russia rather than China, and it includes currencies in five countries not covered by the WisdomTree product: Columbian peso, Philippine Islands peso, Argentine peso, the Indonesia rupiah, and the Hungarian forint.

The recent price history of JEM is shown below. The share price fell from about $51 in July to its low of about $38 in February of this year, a 25% fall.

JEM was introduced at a decidedly unfortunate time, with political and financial instability just beginning in some of its target currencies. The results show in the relatively few assets this ETN has gathered since its inception (Bloomberg lists $2.98 million in assets in their latest data).

Yields on this bundle have been quite good, however, with the last dividend yielding about 9% annualized, but this return has been swamped by falling prices of some of the more unstable currencies.

I prefer the bundle offered by CEW, because some of the more volatile currencies have been omitted. For example, it does not have Russia, Hungary, Argentina, or the Philippines in its mix. Plus, the inclusion of China, which follows a relatively tight peg to the dollar, will help stabilize price fluctuations.

I also prefer the ETF form to the ETN. With last year’s carnage of supposedly unsinkable financial giants, I wonder if the ETN has much of a future.

WisdomTree’s website goes into detail about the expected interest earnings and the standard deviation of the returns of each country.

Although listed as an “income” fund, it will not behave like a normal income fund that is denominated in U.S. dollars. The dividend comes from interest earnings on short term cash instruments in each of the markets they include in their basket. Currency price fluctuations can eat up the interest earnings in a hurry.

Investors must also be aware that by including 11 countries in the mix does not necessarily completely diversify the risks of systemic failure. Emerging Market currencies are prone to move in the same direction during major disturbances, as they recently proved, so the normal safety in numbers is trumped by the herding instincts of investors.

WisdomTree properly recommends keeping currency investing to a 10% maximum of your total portfolio’s value. Part of their case for holding currencies is to moderate the downside risks of portfolios dominated by equities and fixed income holdings. Currencies are remarkably uncorrelated with equity and bond prices, so there is an advantage of lowering total portfolio volatility when currencies are included in the mix. In this case, adding a volatile currency may actually lower overall portfolio volatility because of the counter-cyclical properties of currency holdings.

Depending on your own preferences for risks, and whether you want to hedge your emerging markets equities against possible dollar depreciation, this new ETF may provide your portfolio with some important benefits. I welcome this new offering as a potential tool in balancing the risks when taking on emerging market equity investments. I hope that as the market recovers, some of the other filings of 2008 will see the light of day. Currency investing is not for everyone, but for those who can use it, a wider set of options is welcome.

Signs of Recovery are Sprouting

From Bloomberg today, two bright spots on the economic landscape:

• The Conference Board’s sentiment index climbed to 39.2, the highest level since November, from 26.9 in March, the New York- based research group said today. The gain was the biggest since November 2005.
• Home prices stabilize: A report from S&P/Case-Shiller today showed that the slide in home prices in 20 U.S. markets slowed in February for the first time since January 2007. Prices fell 18.6 percent in February from the same month last year after dropping 19 percent the previous month.

These are welcome developments.  In a financial and economic world beset with bad news, these data emphasize that the dragon of recession can be slain. The programs put in place in the U.S. are beginning to take effect.

Further analysis of the Conference Board sentiment index is also illuminating. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions rose to 23.7 from 21.9 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months surged to 49.5, the highest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September of last year.

This jump in optimism is encouraging, because if and when the economic recovery begins, it must be supported by strong consumer spending. But, if consumers are pessimistic about the future, their wallets are likely to remain closed. The hunker-down syndrome is strong when the outlook is sour.

As for housing prices, recent reports show government efforts to support housing and revive lending may be starting to work. Combined purchases of new and existing houses have hovered around a 5 million annual pace since November, and sales at retailers improved in the first two months of the year.

Add to these new developments the fact that the American and many foreign equity markets are on a fairly sustained up-trend, and you get more signals that the worst may be over, and that investors and consumers are loosening their retrenchment. It looks good for an actual recovery some time this year.

Good News Amid the Bad Employment Numbers

The three charts below explain our current economic state of affairs with good clarity.  Three additional charts show signs of a recovery in the making.

The first chart tracks job losses over the last one year and two month period, beginning in January of 2008 and ending in March, 2009. The bad news, we lost 663,000 jobs in March, similar to the February numbers, but less than January of this year and December of 2008. So far, at least, job losses have stopped getting worse.

The Next chart shows stock prices (Dow Jones Industrial Average) over the same period. From early March, equity prices have been improving, although it is too early to know if the trend will continue. If the six –nine month lead times holds during this recession, then the economy could be expected to turn around sometimes from September through November of this year. There are forecasts that also focus on the last quarter as the turnaround time for the economy. (See below)

The next chart shows the overall unemployment rate, and it has reached a new high with the March report of 8.5%. I expect this number to continue rising, perhaps to as high as 9.5-10%, although I hope I am wrong. Employment is a lagging indicator, so I wouldn’t look for much improvement in this measure until the last quarter, if the turnaround occurs at that time.

In support of an early last quarter turnaround, Professor David Beckworth of Texas State University in San Marcos, TX, posts the following chart:

Projection of Industrial Production based on yield spread from the BAA grade commercial bonds to AAA

Mr. Beckworth insists that the BAA/AAA spread is a clear and unambiguous indicator of investor sentiment with respect to risks. The turnaround in his projection is roughly August–October of this year. This projection is for industrial production, which is not the same as GDP, but it is a large component of GDP and a good indicator of the general health of the economy.

These are tentative signs that a recovery may be building for an American recovery. The world’s economies are following about the same signs. Stock prices have recovered for emerging markets equities, for example the ETF, VWO, which is Vanguard’s Emerging Markets Index, shows a bottoming process in the following 1-Year chart:

The last chart, below, is share prices of two ETFs: VWO, and Brazil (EWZ), except I change the time frame to the last three months.  This change will help highlight the recovery in prices of both VWO and EWZ during the first quarter of this year.

It’s too early to make a definitive call on this turnaround, but if it does hold, it bodes well for a general recovery, since the emerging markets are generally considered to more risky than developed economies. If investment money is beginning to flow once again into the developing economies, it indicates a strong reversal of risk preferences that characterized this market for much of the last year.

Another encouraging sign is the conclusion of the G-20 meeting yesterday, where a trillion dollars of new money was pledged to the IMF and World Bank to help the emerging markets with currency loans and international trade financing for those countries most strapped by the slowdown.

In my view, it is not Spring, yet. But there are some signs that the economic flowers are beginning to bloom.

Estimate of China's Growth in 2009 Cut by World Bank

The 25.7 percent drop in exports has prompted The World Bank to cut its estimate of China’s 2009 growth from 7.5 percent to 6.5 percent. The cut on Wednesday was the second time in the last four months the World Bank has reduced its estimate of China’s growth. The estimate before November was 9.2 percent , but was reduced in that month to 7.5 percent The current estimate of 6.5 percent is the weakest since 1990, when the economy expanded by only 3.8 percent.

The fall in exports has continued in China over the last six months, as the world wide recession extends its reach. The report did not foresee a significant recovery for China until the world economy recovers, and most economists do not see this occurring until the last quarter of 2009 or even later.

Although Mr. Wen Jiabao, China’s Premier, said only last week that China would reach its 8 percent goal for growth this year, he is almost the only one who is holding to that outlook. Most private economists see a more dismal picture for China for the rest of this year, with their estimates ranging from 5 percent on the low end to 8 percent of Mr. Wen.

The World Bank did not factor into their estimate that Mr. Wen has stated that if their 8 percent target for growth begins to looks uncertain, he is prepared to increase stimulus spending enough to bring it up to target.  It is likely that this possibility will be discussed at the G-20 meeting in London on April 2nd, as many of the members have endorsed a coordinated effort of stimulus spending in order to increase world trade.

The Chinese stock market has reflected the gloomier outlook for their economy. The chart below shows the exchange traded fund, FXI, which is Barclays’ Capital ETF that follows the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index. This index has dropped 50 percent over the last year.

The index does appear to have stabilized in the $20 to $30 range since last November, however. It closed at $27.48 on Tuesday.

Looking for the Bottom of the Recession

What are the signs of the recession reaching bottom?  There are a number of indicators that may be of some help.  For the stock market, which usually turns up a quarter or two before the economy follows, the signs are weak, but at least in the right direction:  First, an upturn in the total stock index would be a good sign.  The chart below is a three-month tracking of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

But is the slight up-tick for the last week a telling indicator?  Probably not, since it could just as easily turn down next week.  One week does not make a trend.

Another stock market measure is the price/earning ratio of the market.  The market index value divided by the aggregate earnings of all the components is an important indicator of the value of equity holdings.  The chart below shows a long, historical trend of this measure:

P/E Ratios for U.S. Equities

The P/E ratio in earlier recessions was lower than it is now, but this indicates that the bottom may at least be near.  The current level of 13 is below the long term average of around 15, but it was below 10 in both the 1982 and 1930s recession.

One of the reasons business earnings (half of the P/E ratio) are so low is the inability of businesses to raise prices.  We are currently in a period of deflation, which is not promising for a strong business environment.  However, there are a couple of up-indicators for a return of rising prices: the prices of copper, corporate bonds and inflation-protected Treasury securities are higher today than they were in November.

For an Associated Press Report on the possibility of bottoming, follow the link:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090314/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_finding_the_bottom

The prices of homes is another indicator that many consider important to a recovery.  The graph below shows the trend in this important variable:

Prices of Homes

Home prices have come down considerably from their previous high, but they still have a way to go before reaching the long term average.  Also, home prices vary considerably within different markets.  Some of the hardest-hit regions (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami) have already lost about 50% of their previous high.

The one variable yet to be considered is the broken banking system that afflicts most of the developed and emerging markets world.  And on this front, there is not much encouraging news.  It is impossible to foresee an economic recovery without a healthy banking system, and that is not present just now.  The meeting of finance ministers in London over the weekend indicates they want to do something about it, but the language they chose in their press release was to "do everything possible" to correct the problem.  This is not language that instills confidence in the investing community.  It will be up to the heads of state, who meet on April 2nd to address this issue more fully.

The only encouraging statement coming out of the meeting of the finance ministers came from U.S. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, who indicated he would flesh out his proposal to strengthen American banks, "soon."

Two other items relevant to a recovery are consumer spending, which is still falling, and the huge amount of money market and cash holdings by investors and banks.  Consumer spending needed to fall from its near 100% level just a few month ago.  An economy needs to have savers, and this country lost theirs, at least in the aggregate, for many of the last few years.  There is a recovery of savings underway, but it has a bit further to fall before stabilizing at the long-term average of 93%,

Cash holdings of investors in money market funds and banks are exceptionally high, which indicates to me that there is plenty of money poised to re-enter the equities market, once confidence is restored.  We can only hope it is soon.  Probably by the middle of April, we should see some signs of recovery of consumer confidence.  The G-20 meeting will have concluded, with some expected gains from an agreement to strengthen the IMF lending to emerging markets, better international banking regulation and some coordination of stimulus spending plans.

Plus, there are other signs that the rate of getting worse is slowing down. Unemployment figures for March will help clarify this issue, and they should be out in early April.  If we get some encouraging signs by the end of April, then we might expect a bottoming by the summer or fall quarter.

UPdate 3/16:  Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, sees end of recession in 2009.

From NYT: “We’ll see the recession coming to an end probably this year.”

With those words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke staked a marker on what he believes will be the end of the malaise that has descended upon the United States economy. And, he said on a “60 Minutes” interview that ran Sunday evening, the country will begin to recover next year — “and it will pick up steam over time.”

To watch a video of the interview on 60 minutes, follow the links below.

The Chairman Part 1 (13:23)

The Chairman Part 2 (13:13)

Behind The Scenes #1 (0:57)

To read the complete transcript of Mr. Bernanke's inverview Follow this link to the CBS site.

Looking for the Bottom of the Recession

What are the signs of the recession reaching bottom?  There are a number of indicators that may be of some help.  For the stock market, which usually turns up a quarter or two before the economy follows, the signs are weak, but at least in the right direction:  First, an upturn in the total stock index would be a good sign.  The chart below is a three-month tracking of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

But is the slight up-tick for the last week a telling indicator?  Probably not, since it could just as easily turn down next week.  One week does not make a trend.

Another stock market measure is the price/earning ratio of the market.  The market index value divided by the aggregate earnings of all the components is an important indicator of the value of equity holdings.  The chart below shows a long, historical trend of this measure:

P/E Ratios for U.S. Equities

The P/E ratio in earlier recessions was lower than it is now, but this indicates that the bottom may at least be near.  The current level of 13 is below the long term average of around 15, but it was below 10 in both the 1982 and 1930s recession.

One of the reasons business earnings (half of the P/E ratio) are so low is the inability of businesses to raise prices.  We are currently in a period of deflation, which is not promising to a strong business environment.  However, there are a couple of up-indicators for a return of rising prices: the prices of copper, corporate bonds and inflation-protected Treasury securities are higher today than they were in November.

For an Associated Report on the possibility of bottoming, follow the link:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090314/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_finding_the_bottom

The prices of homes is another indicator that many consider important to a recovery.  The graph below shows the trend in this important variable:

Prices of Homes

Home prices have come down considerably from their previous high, but they still have a way to go before reaching the long term average.  Also, home prices vary considerably within different markets.  Some of the hardest-hit regions (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Maimi) have already lost about 50% of their previous high.

The one variable yet to be considered is the broken banking system that afflicts most of the developed and emerging markets world.  And on this front, there is not much encouraging news.  It is impossible to foresee an economic recovery without a healthy banking system, and that is not present just now.  The meeting of finance ministers in London over the weekend indicates they want to do something about it, but the language they chose in their press release was to "do everything possible" to correct the problem.  This is not language that instills confidence in the investing community.  It will be up to the heads of state, who meet on April 2nd to address this issue more fully.

The only encouraging statement coming out of the meeting of the finance ministers came from U.S. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, who indicated he would flesh out his proposal to strengthen American banks, "soon."

Two other items relevant to a recovery are consumer spending, which is still falling, and the huge amount of money market and cash holdings by investors and banks.  Consumer spending needed to fall from its near 100% level just a few month ago.  An economy needs to have savers, and this country lost their, at least in the aggregate, for many of the last few years.  There is a recovery of savings underway, but it has a bit further to fall before stabilizing at the long-term average of 93%,

Cash holdings of investors in money market funds and banks are exceptionally high, which indicates to me that there is plenty of money poised to re-enter the equities market, once confidence is restored.  We can only hope it is soon.  Probably by the middle of April, we should see some signs of recovery of consumer confidence.  The G-20 meeting will have concluded, with some expected gains from an agreement to strengthen the IMF lending to emerging markets, better international banking regulation and some coordination of stimulus spending plans.

Plus, there are other signs that the rate of getting worse is slowing down. Unemployment figures for March will help clarify this issue, and they should be out in early April.  If we get some encouraging signs by the end of April, then we might expect a bottoming by the summer or fall quarter.

UPdate 3/16:  Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, sees end of recession in 2009.

From NYT: “We’ll see the recession coming to an end probably this year.”

With those words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke staked a marker on what he believes will be the end of the malaise that has descended upon the United States economy. And, he said on a “60 Minutes” interview that ran Sunday evening, the country will begin to recover next year — “and it will pick up steam over time.”

To watch a video of the interview on 60 minutes, follow the links below.

• 
  The Chairman Part 1 (13:23)
• 
  The Chairman Part 2 (13:13)
• 
  Behind The Scenes #1 (0:57)

To read the complete transcript of Mr. Bernanke's inverview Follow this link to the CBS site.

Looking for the Bottom of the Recession

What are the signs of the recession reaching bottom?  There are a number of indicators that may help.  For the stock market, which usually turns up a quarter or two before the economy follows, the signs are weak, but at least in the right direction:  First, an upturn in the total stock index would be a good sign.  The chart below is a three-month tracking of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

But is the slight up-tick for the last week a telling indicator?  Probably not, since it could just as easily turn down next week.  One week does not make a trend.

Another stock market measure is the price/earning ratio of the market.  The market index value divided by the aggregate earnings of all the components is an important indicator of the value of equity holdings.  The chart below shows a long, historical trend of this measure:

P/E Ratios for U.S. Equities 

The P/E ratio in earlier recessions was lower than it is now, but this indicates that the bottom may at least be near.  The current level of 13 is below the long term average of around 15, but it was below 10 in both the 1982 and 1930s recession.

One of the reasons business earnings (half of the P/E ratio) are so low is the inability of businesses to raise prices.  We are currently in a period of deflation, which is not promising to a strong business environment.  However, there are a couple of up-indicators for a return of rising prices: the prices of copper, corporate bonds and inflation-protected Treasury securities are higher today than they were in November.

For an Associated Report on the possibility of bottoming, follow the link:click here.

The prices of homes is another indicator that many consider important to a recovery.  The graph below shows the trend in this important variable:

Prices of Homes

Home prices have come down considerably from their previous high, but they still have a way to go before reaching the long term average.  Also, home prices vary considerably within different markets.  Some of the hardest-hit regions (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Maimi) have already lost about 50% of their previous high.

The one variable yet to be considered is the broken banking system that afflicts most of the developed and emerging markets world.  And on this front, there is not much encouraging news.  It is impossible to foresee an economic recovery without a healthy banking system, and that is not present just now.  The meeting of finance ministers in London over the weekend indicates they want to do something about it, but the language they chose in their press release was to "do everything possible" to correct the problem.  This is not language that instills confidence in the investing community.  It will be up to the heads of state, who meet on April 2nd to address this issue more fully.

The only encouraging statement coming out of the meeting of the finance ministers came from U.S. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, who indicated he would flesh out his proposal to strengthen American banks, "soon." 

Two other items relevant to a recovery are consumer spending, which is still falling, and the huge amount of money market and cash holdings by investors and banks.  Consumer spending needed to fall from its near 100% level just a few month ago.  An economy needs to have savers, and this country lost their, at least in the aggregate, for many of the last few years.  There is a recovery of savings underway, but it has a bit further to fall before stabilizing at the long-term average of 93%,

Cash holdings of investors in money market funds and banks are exceptionally high, which indicates to me that there is plenty of money poised to re-enter the equities market, once confidence is restored.  We can only hope it is soon.  Probably by the middle of April, we should see some signs of recovery of consumer confidence.  The G-20 meeting will have concluded, with some expected gains from an agreement to strengthen the IMF lending to emerging markets, better international banking regulation and some coordination of stimulus spending plans.

Plus, there are other signs that the rate of getting worse is slowing down. Unemployment figures for March will help clarify this issue, and they should be out in early April.  If we get some encouraging signs by the end of April, then we might expect a bottoming by the summer or fall quarter.

G-20 Finance Ministers Meet in London This Weekend to Hash out the April Agenda for a New World Order

In a move that sets the American tone for the meeting this weekend in London, President Obama called for coordination of increased stimulus spending by the G-20 members and for increased international cooperation in regulating the world's financial institutions.  Most agree that a new world order is needed, but there is not agreement as to what should be emphasized first.

In recent past statements, Mr. Obama had downplayed America's role  in working on international bank regulations.  His Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Timothy Geithner, has stated that America would not have a fully fleshed-out regulatory package in time for the London meeting.  It is not clear from the statement whether the new statement of the President means that this problem has been overcome.  But, it is reassuring that he is not backing away from this important agenda item.

There is not a unanimity among world leaders about the most important items on the G-20 agenda.  Angela Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, has not agreed that a major stimulus program is necessary for the Euroland economies.  Her current proposal of about $63 billion in stimulus spending is dwarfed by the U.S. efforts of almost $800 billion recently passed by Congress and by China's $500 billion that is already being spent.  Japan is more in the German camp, having committed to stimulus spending, but not being willing to take on much more debt to bring it off.  The U.K. is more in the American and Chinese camps.

Recent downturns in German exports, however, may move the German Chancellor off the dime, but so far, she thinks the major focus of the G-20 meeting should be bank regulation rather than deficit spending.  Japan holds a similar position.

The International Monetary Fund has called on the trading nations of the world to commit to stimulus spending of 2% of GDP for 2009 and 2010, far above the current German efforts.  Mr. Geithner, in a press conference later in the day, endorsed this goal, and he endorsed the IMF goal of funding an additional $500 billion in funding for their efforts to stabilize the weaker currencies of Asian and Central European economies.

In an earlier meeting between Mr. Obama with British Prime Minister, Mr. Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister emphasized an agenda for the G-20 that would completely restructure the original Bretton Woods agreement.  This would mean a new structure for the IMF, the World Bank and internationalizing banking regulation.  Mr. Obama did not specifically endorse these proposals at the meeting, but he may have come along some since that time.

The banks of the world are not enthusiastic about these new regulatory proposals.  Their trade association has already met and drafted their own version of what would pass muster for them.  You can guess as to the nature of their proposal.

Others think that Mr. Brown has set too ambitious an agenda for the meeting.  He, it is said, needs to be seen as a heroic figure at the meeting, given his shaky status in his own country.

There is little doubt that the world needs a new Bretton Woods arrangement.  Too much has changed since the 1944 agreement that reestablish mechanisms that promoted world trade.  Before WWI, the British pound sterling had been used as the major trading currency in the world, but WWI and WWII saw the end of the preeminence of the pound, and Bretton Woods replaced it with the U.S. dollar.

A new agreement would not likely replace the dollar in its role as the major reserve currency in the world.  There are simply no suitable currencies that have the heft to take its place.  But the IMF and World Bank, just to name two, need to be restructured, allowing greater participation by China, India and Brazil, who are becoming important players in world trade.  And, some mechanism needs to be reinforced to come to the rescue of the battered currencies of Europe's emerging markets.  Adding a complete restructuring of the regulatory environment for the world's banks and coordinating stimulus spending to the agenda is a long reach.

This is a hugely important meeting, and its success or failure to rise to the occasion is still up in the air. My hope is that on areas where there is still disagreement, they will agree to meet again, perhaps later in the year, to reach a final settlement.  Mr. Obama has not been if office long enough to be fully prepared for this giant a task.

Update 03/14/09

A report from the Wall Street Journal on Saturday concluded that there will not be a unified agreement from G-20 members to call for more stimulus spending.  (Click here for full article.)  Germany and France argued that their unemployment benefits and other social safety net made stimulus spending less necessary.  There was agreement to increase funding for the IMF, but the amount will be left to a later decision, and there was agreement on licensing credit rating agencies.  There will still be an emphasis by the U.S. to coordinate stimulus spending, however.

For Bloomberg's Saturday update click here.  Their emphasis is on solving the banking asset problem--the difficulties of reaching an agreement and the difficulty of the problem itself.

G-20 Finance Ministers Meet in London This Weekend to Hash out the April Agenda for a New World Order

In a move that sets the American tone for the meeting this weekend in London, President Obama called for coordination of increased stimulus spending by the G-20 members and for increased international cooperation in regulating the world's financial institutions.  Most agree that a new world order is needed, but there is not agreement as to what should be emphasized first.

In recent past statements, Mr. Obama had downplayed America's role  in working on international bank regulations.  His Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Timothy Geithner, has stated that America would not have a fully fleshed-out regulatory package in time for the London meeting.  It is not clear from the statement whether the new statement of the President means that this problem has been overcome.  But, it is reassuring that he is not backing away from this important agenda item.

There is not a unanimity among world leaders about the most important items on the G-20 agenda.  Angela Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, has not agreed that a major stimulus program is necessary for the Euroland economies.  Her current proposal of about $63 billion in stimulus spending is dwarfed by the U.S. efforts of almost $800 billion recently passed by Congress and by China's $500 billion that is already being spent.  Japan is more in the German camp, having committed to stimulus spending, but not being willing to take on much more debt to bring it off.  The U.K. is more in the American and Chinese camps.

Recent downturns in German exports, however, may move the German Chancellor off the dime, but so far, she thinks the major focus of the G-20 meeting should be bank regulation rather than deficit spending.  Japan holds a similar position.

The International Monetary Fund has called on the trading nations of the world to commit to stimulus spending of 2% of GDP for 2009 and 2010, far above the current German efforts.  Mr. Geithner, in a press conference later in the day, endorsed this goal, and he endorsed the IMF goal of funding an additional $500 billion in funding for their efforts to stabilize the weaker currencies of Asian and Central European economies.

In an earlier meeting between Mr. Obama with British Prime Minister, Mr. Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister emphasized an agenda for the G-20 that would completely restructure the original Bretton Woods agreement.  This would mean a new structure for the IMF, the World Bank and internationalizing banking regulation.  Mr. Obama did not specifically endorse these proposals at the meeting, but he may have come along some since that time.

The banks of the world are not enthusiastic about these new regulatory proposals.  Their trade association has already met and drafted their own version of what would pass muster for them.  You can guess as to the nature of their proposal.

Others think that Mr. Brown has set too ambitious an agenda for the meeting.  He, it is said, needs to be seen as a heroic figure at the meeting, given his shaky status in his own country.

There is little doubt that the world needs a new Bretton Woods arrangement.  Too much has changed since the 1944 agreement that reestablish mechanisms that promoted world trade.  Before WWI, the British pound sterling had been used as the major trading currency in the world, but WWI and WWII saw the end of the preeminence of the pound, and Bretton Woods replaced it with the U.S. dollar.

A new agreement would not likely replace the dollar in its role as the major reserve currency in the world.  There are simply no suitable currencies that have the heft to take its place.  But the IMF and World Bank, just to name two, need to be restructured, allowing greater participation by China, India and Brazil, who are becoming important players in world trade.  And, some mechanism needs to be reinforced to come to the rescue of the battered currencies of Europe's emerging markets.  Adding a complete restructuring of the regulatory environment for the world's banks and coordinating stimulus spending to the agenda is a long reach.

This is a hugely important meeting, and its success or failure to rise to the occasion is still up in the air. My hope is that on areas where there is still disagreement, they will agree to meet again, perhaps later in the year, to reach a final settlement.  Mr. Obama has not been if office long enough to be fully prepared for this giant a task.

Update 03/14/09

A report from the Wall Street Journal on Saturday concluded that there will not be a unified agreement from G-20 members to call for more stimulus spending.  (Click here for full article.)  Germany and France argued that their unemployment benefits and other social safety net made stimulus spending less necessary.  There was agreement to increase funding for the IMF, but the amount will be left to a later decision, and there was agreement on licensing credit rating agencies.  There will still be an emphasis by the U.S. to coordinate stimulus spending, however.

G-20 Finance Ministers Meet in London This Weekend to Hash out the April Agenda for a New World Order

In a move that sets the American tone for the meeting this weekend in London, President Obama called for coordination of increased stimulus spending by the G-20 members and for increased international cooperation in regulating the world's financial institutions.  Most agree that a new world order is needed, but there is not agreement as to what should be the most emphasized.

In recent past statements, Mr. Obama had downplayed America's role  in working on international bank regulations.  His Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Timothy Geithner, has stated that America would not have a fully fleshed-out regulatory package in time for the London meeting.  It is not clear from the statement whether the new statement of the President means that this problem has been overcome.  But, it is reassuring that he is not backing away from this important agenda item.

There is not unanimity among world leaders about the most important items on the G-20 agenda.  Angela Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, does not see that a major stimulus program is necessary for the Euroland economies.  Her current proposal of about $63 billion in stimulus spending is dwarfed by the U.S. efforts of almost $800 billion recently passed by Congress and by China's $500 billion that is already being spent.  Japan is more in the German camp, having committed to stimulus spending, but not being willing to take on much more debt to bring it off.  The U.K. is more in the American and Chinese camps.

Recent downturns in German exports, however, may move the German Chancellor off the dime, but so far, she thinks the major focus of the G-20 meeting should be bank regulation rather than deficit spending. 

The International Monetary Fund has called on the trading nations of the world to commit to stimulus spending of 2% of GDP for 2009 and 2010, far above the current German efforts.  Mr. Geithner, in a press conference later in the day, endorsed this goal, and he endorsed the IMF goal of funding an additional $500 billion in funding for their efforts to stabilize the weaker currencies of Asian and Central European economies.

In an earlier meeting between Mr. Obama with British Prime Minister, Mr. Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister emphasized an agenda for the G-20 that would completely restructure the original Bretton Woods agreement.  This would mean a new structure for the IMF, the World Bank and internationalizing banking regulation.  Mr. Obama did not specifically endorse these proposals at the meeting, but he may have come along some since that time.

The banks of the world are not enthusiastic about these new regulatory proposals.  Their trade association has already met and drafted their own version of what would pass muster for them.  You can guess as to the nature of their proposal.

Others think that Mr. Brown has set too ambitious an agenda for the meeting.  He, it is said, needs to be seen as a heroic figure at the meeting, given his shaky status in his own country.

There is little doubt that the world needs a new Bretton Woods arrangement.  Too much has changed since the 1944 agreement that reestablish mechanisms that promoted world trade.  Before WWI, the British pound sterling had been used as the major trading currency in the world, but WWI and WWII saw the end of the preeminence of the pound, and Bretton Woods replaced it with the U.S. dollar.

A new agreement would not likely replace the dollar in its role as the major reserve currency in the world.  There are simply no suitable currencies that have the heft to take its place.  But the IMF and World Bank, just to name two, need to be restructured, allowing greater participation by China, India and Brazil, who are becoming important players in world trade.  And, some mechanism needs to be reinforced to come to the rescue of the battered currencies of Europe's emerging markets.  Adding a complete restructuring of the regulatory environment for the world's banks and coordinating stimulus spending to the agenda is a long reach.

This is a hugely important meeting, and its success or failure to rise to the occasion is still up in the air. My hope is that on areas where there is still disagreement, they will agree to meet again, perhaps later in the year, to reach a final settlement.  Mr. Obama has not been if office long enough to be fully prepared for this giant a task.

China Prices and German Export Orders Fall

Two significant signs of the worsening global slowdown come from China and Germany--two of the world's largest exporting countries.

Consumer prices in China fell 1.6 percent lower last month than the same month in 2008. This was the first decline since December 2002. February’s result represented a fast drop from an inflation rate of 8.7 percent in February of last year, when rising prices were a top priority for the Chinese government.

Producer prices are falling even faster. Oil and commodity prices contributed to the drop, but also a by a glut of factory capacity and falling of demand from both exporters and Chinese. Producer prices were 4.5 percent lower last month than a year earlier, after having shown annual increases of as much as 10 percent as recently as last summer.

Hong Kong business leaders also warned that their mainland factories are not running full capacity, but only a few have actually closed down. “They may be operating at one-third or half of production” capacity, said Clement Chen, the chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries.

China’s problems, while not nearly as bad as America or Europe, are beginning to take a toll. China’s growth rate has already been declared to be about 6%, substantially below the near 10 percent rate of the last decade.

On the positive side, the stimulus spending package is already showing up in investment totals, as China is pumping about $500 billion into its economy. No one, at least yet, has predicted their economy will turn negative for 2009.

These developments in China, and reports that Germany is now facing a worsening economy, will probably contribute to the sense in the upcoming G-20 meeting in London that there needs to be a world-wide coordination of stimulus spending.  Mr. Obama has already put this at the top of his agenda, and Chinese officials have voiced similar sentiments. 

Only Chancellor Angela Merkle of Germany has not seen the need for a large stimulus plan.  Perhaps the 38 percent plunge in January export orders,  the biggest drop since data for a reunified Germany started in 1991, will get her attention. “The annual slump is absolutely catastrophic,” said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit MIB in Munich. “The extent of declines is terrifying.”

From Bloomberg, "Export factory orders for Germany sank 11.4 percent in January from December, according to today’s report, with orders from outside the 16-nation euro region dropping 18.2 percent. Domestic demand dropped 4.3 percent in the month.

Pan-European Slump

Production is slumping across Europe. In the U.K., factory output dropped 6.4 percent in the three months through January, the most in at least four decades. French industrial production declined 3.1 percent in the month, five times the pace predicted by economists.

The German economy, Europe’s largest, will shrink 2.5 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said on Jan. 22, three times as much as previously forecast. The European Central Bank expects the euro-region economy to contract about 2.7 percent in 2009."

The Battle of the Budget Shapes UP

President Obama's budget, submitted this week to Congress, is stirring things up, as should be expected.  Combating the deepening recession with a near-trillion dollars stimulus plan, and keeping to his campaign promises to reform health care, energy production, combat global warming, and increase education spending, his $3.6 trillion proposal is both ambitious and startling.

The battle lines are already forming.  Republicans, as expected, will  attack it,hurling  labels:  "socialism," "unAmerican," "Big Government," etc.  Even some democrats are unhappy with cutting farm subsidies to some of their big contributors--those who take in over a half a million dollars a year. 

Mr. Obama is fighting back, however.  His website has a video presentation of his weekly "radio" address in which he lays out his defense. (Click here to see it)

The video can be accessed directly.

President Obama's Budget Defense

The vested interests, such as the medical and insurance industries, do not like it.  So, we can expect a repeat of the advertising blitz that doomed the Clinton proposal in his first year in office.  This time, though, the Obama Administration knows what to expect, so I would expect orchestrated counterattacks to shore up the defenses.

There is no way to overstate the sea-change this budget represents.  It abandons the Reagan approach that defined government as the problem, and reinstates the Roosevelt approach that placed the federal government front and center of shaping American welfare.  It will be interesting to see how this looming battle plays out.  Can Mr. Obama use his popular mandate to force through this kind of change?  Stay tuned for a round-by-round accounting.

Update on Health Care initiative: (3/5/09)

Although Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton has not directly participated in any of the White House’s planning sessions on health care, her presence is felt in Mr. Obama’s efforts to pass his own health care reform proposals. The work she did 15 years ago, although ultimately unsuccessful, is being used as a model of what and what not to do for the current efforts.

First, the Obama plan is not being drafted in secret, and then handed over to Congress to pass. Mr. Obama’s plan is broadly defined, and Congress will be allowed to shape the details. Secondly, Mr. Obama is introducing his plan only six weeks into his Presidency. Mr. Clinton waited for 11 months to make his move. The delay, according to some, was one of the major factors in its defeat.

Another factor was the focus of the new plan, which stresses cost control, and it allows everyone to keep their current coverage if they want to. One of the things about the Clinton plan that was attacked was the fear that everyone was going to be forced into one type of access to health care.

Mr. Obama has also included at least partial funding ($635 billion) for his proposal in his first budget submitted to Congress. Mr. Clinton did not do this, choosing to focus initially on balancing the budget, which did not allow any room for health care spending. Now, however, the need for health care reform is widely seen as a necessary step to control the costs of Medicare and other federal spending that touches on health care. This means that the proposals of Mr. Obama are facing far less resistance from Congress and, oddly enough, even from the health care industry than the Clinton plan when it was introduced.

These differences may be critical in gaining passage of this most important piece of legislation. Although Mrs. Clinton may be engaged in diplomacy in foreign lands today, her efforts of a decade and a half ago are helping the new President do what he promised to do about bringing important changes to Washington. She may not get the credit for the success, and certainly Mr. Obama deserves all he will get for getting the job done, but Mrs. Clinton knows that her past efforts are providing some broad shoulders for the current Administration to stand on.

Picture of an Economy Collapsing

Graph of Quarterly Change in GDP

See update to this chart for late February, below.

To continue reading and see the latest update, follow this link.

The Dollar as Beauty Queen

Like the great American humorist, Samuel Clements ( Mark Twain), reports of the death of the dollar have been highly exaggerated.  I follow commentary and developments in the currency markets, and there has been a downbeat attitude about the dollar for years, especially from those who fail to understand the strength of greenback as the ultimate reserve currency.

If we line up the current levels of American unemployment, GDP, budget deficits and the current account deficit, the dollar can be made to look like a pig.   The problem, though, is that a currency's value is never a matter of absolute value.  It's always about relative value.

Certainly the absolute picture of the American economy is gloomy.  But, then, so is almost everybody else on the world stage.  In Europe, both the developed and developing nations are worse.  Their banking crisis is similar to ours, and their exports are falling fast, as the recession strikes all parts of

Euro/Dollar--Feb 08 to Present 

 

the continent.  To read the entire article and see additional graphs, click, here.

U.S.-Canada Relations Front and Center

 

For many years the tradition for a new American President has been to make Canada his first international stop. This underscores the close relationship between the neighboring countries.

President Obama and Ottawa from the American side of the St. Lawrence River

We share a long, un-guarded border with Canada, and we also share a common British heritage that covers a wide swath of commonality in language, legal system, political tradition and general culture. We also trade together. We export more to Canada than any other country, and Canada sells 33% of its GDP to Americans. There is good reason Canada gets the first Presidential visit, and I am glad Mr. Obama has continued the tradition today when Air Force One touches down on Canadian soil.

To continue reading this blog, please here to continue.

Report on G7 Meeting in Rome and Looking Ahead to London's G20 Meeting on April 2nd

A general view of the Group of Seven (G7) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Rome, Saturday, Feb. 14, 2009.

The group shot above show the attendees of the meeting.  The photo below is a close up of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, left, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, second from left, and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Treasury Mark Sobel who accompanied Mr. Geithner to the meeting.

Continue reading article here.

All Eyes on Rome as the G7 Members Meet

All eyes should be on Rome today (Friday, Feb. 13) and tomorrow. The G7 meeting is taking place there, and the American representative, our Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner, will have his first chance to meet the finance ministers of Canada, France Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom.(click here for an earlier review of Mr. Geithner)

The meeting is important because Mr. Geithner will be forced, to some degree, to put some meat on his proposal to salvage the American banking system. His proposal of a few days ago, as to how to spend the balance of the TARP funds, has not been greeted with any enthusiasm in America.

American banks are in horrid shape, especially our largest ones. Today, the market capitalization of our top banks is below $500 billion. Yet the International Monetary Fund estimates that the write-downs of their loan portfolios will rise to $2.2 trillion once a full accounting is required. When this happens, Mr. Geithner will be forced to step up to the task of rescuing them. But it is hard to imagine a scenario where the American taxpayer will pony up $2 trillion and not want a piece of the action. Yet “nationalization” of our banking system is not something he, or many others, want.

For the balance of this article and details of what is faced at the G7 meeting, click here.

Unemployment Reaches for the Sky as Economy Deteriorates

The American economy lost almost 600,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.6 percent, its highest level in more than 16 years, the Labor Department said Friday. Overall, the Labor Department reported that since the U.S. economy went into recession in December, 2007,

3.6 million jobs have been lost.

Businesses in all sectors except health care are cutting back on their payrolls. It is a major retrenchment and is still getting worse. The chart above shows the change in employment levels by month. Considering that the U.S. needs, on average, about 1.5 million new jobs each month in order to keep up with labor force growth, the effects on the economy are worse than the bar chart shows. As jobs become harder to get, as they are now, this discourages many workers from even looking for work. These “discouraged workers,” as they are called, are then no longer counted in the labor force—thus understating the unemployment levels.

To read the balance of this article, and see additional graphs, check here.

Picture of an Economy Collapsing

Graph of Quarterly Change in GDP

The graphic above shows the dramatic drop in annualized GDP quarterly growth for the fourth quarter of last year. Two other points  are well demonstrated in this data: (To read the balance of this article, follow this Link.

Unemployment Gets Worse in Every State

The Bureau of Labor Statistics provided the data for the chart below.

In a sea of bad news, the water just got a little deeper, as every state in the United States reported a month over month and year over year rise in their unemployment numbers.

It is not surprising that the agricultural states in the center of the country have the lowest levels of unemployment, since so much of farm labor is supplied by the families that own the farm.  The industrial states are suffering the most, as they are most dependent on factory employment.  But, even the service industries are hurting, as California, Florida and Nevada, three states that have large service industry composition, all show unemployment of 10% or higher.

Bailed-out Banks Keep Senior Executives

A report from the Associated Press today discloses that nine out of ten banks that got bailout funds have kept their senior management in place.  In other words: "The same executives who were at the controls as the banking system nearly collapsed are the ones the government is counting on to help save it."

The regular employees of these banks have not been so lucky.  The same report details how there have been about 100,000 job cuts in the banking industry since the failures began.  Unfortunately, the job cuts are coming from the ranks, not from the top. 

The taxpayers, too, are not getting a fair deal for the billions they are handing over to the failed banks.  We will have no say or right to questions decisions by the same executives who misguided their corporations to bankruptcy.

In another report, the high-flying execs at Citibank caved under pressure from President Obama and decided today to abandon plans for a luxurious new $50 million corporate jet from France.  The decision came 24 hours after the banking giant, which was rescued by a $45 billion taxpayer bailout, defended buying the state-of-the-art Dassault Falcon 7-X U.S. skies -- as a smart business deal.

To see the pictures of the Falcom 7-X and read the balance of the blog, click here.

Asia Takes a Hit

From the looks of the chart below, don’t talk of decoupling in Taiwan. In a country where almost 50% of GDP comes from exports, the world wide recession is having a devastating effect. With exports down 40% from last year, Taiwan is suffering a 20% drop in GDP if last month’s losses are annualized.

Compare this with an expected GDP drop in Germany or America of from 1-2% and you see how the losses in their major markets translate in a multiplier effect of around 10 times in Taiwan. They are not decoupled with America and Western Europe. They depend on demand from these regions to fuel their internal employment and growth.

For the rest of the article, follow this Link

Pictures of a Global Recession

The graphic below, supplied by the New York Times, provides a strong image of how the global recession is affecting countries around the world. For December of ’08, the three largest exporters in the world , China ($105.7 billion), the U.S. ($98.1 billion), and Germany ($96.1 billion) all showed losses from December of ’07. China slowed 3% in December and 2% in November. The U.S. slowed 4% from a year year, and Germany dropped 21%.

To see the graphics of these and other nation's export performance, click here.

Economic Outlook for 2009

Predictions for the American economy are all over the map. The most optimistic prediction I see calls for the first half of 2009 to continue its decline, with unemployment reaching 7-8% by the end of June. Recovery will begin in the second half, and the economy will end the year with a net growth of 1% to 1.5%.

A less optimistic outlook sees the decline continuing until the third or fourth quarter of the year, with net growth for the year as at or near zero and unemployment reaching as much as 8% to 9%, with even 10% a possibility.

The most pessimistic projections see the recession lasting through the entire year, with the highest level of unemployment reaching from 10% to 12%. A few of the pessimistic school see an even more protracted downturn, lasting as long as to 2011. This group sees negative growth for all of 2009 and even through 2010 in some cases.

Breadline in N.Y. in 1930

To view the rest of the article, click here.