Monday, December 22, 2008

The Need for Counter Cyclical Measures in a Falling Economy: Another Picture of Unemployment

Many journalists, when writing about the economy, focus on the broadest pictures:  Gross National Product, total Non-farm employment, etc.  But, sometimes the big picture needs supplementing with a narrower focus. 

In looking at employment, for example, it helps to break the total employment picture down into three primary sectors.

  • Cyclical Services, which include information services, fire, professional and business services plus leisure and hospitality (sports, hotels, gambling, e.g.),  Employment in this sector follows the general business cycle.
  • Acyclical Services, which include health, education, other services, and government.  These services, as the name implies, do not vary with the business cycle as much as the other sectors.
  • Goods, i.e., produced goods, which are generally measured with  industrial production figures.

Below is a graph of these three sectors, measured in total payrolls for each sector as annualized six-month changes.  This chart shows how wide a path unemployment is cutting through our economy.  Most everyone is feeling it.

The see the graph and further analysis of sector analysis, follow this link.

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